Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Lookin At Playoff Chances

Do I pretend to understand the complex algorithms and the millions of simulations that Sports Club Stats runs to come up with the percentages they do?  Absolutely not.  What I do know is that it's pretty damn accurate and it's a whole lot less work I need to do to determine when and how teams need to perform to reach that important point threshold.

So where do the bubble teams sit?  How precarious a hold do current playoff teams have?  Let's check it.


Check the graph from the awesome Sports Club Stats; percentage wise you have 6 teams comfortably in, 4 teams comfortably out, and 5 teams gunning for those last 2 spots.  And Yes; I realize 4-10 (by points, not) are only separated by 9 points; but I don't feel like doing that much research for that many squads.

To Reach 91 Point Threshold



TeamGames RemainingRequired RecordPointsChances in at 91Playoff Chances
Bruins2510-13-22284.6%99.6%
Canadiens2410-12-22282.9%93%
Capitals2510-12-32377%94.5%
Rangers2412-9-32777%77.4%
Hurricanes2513-9-32969%52.8%
Sabres2714-10-33172.6%52.9%
Panthers2717-8-23660.7%17.9%
Thrashers2414-7-33155.1%11.5%


Note that the chances colum refers to the chances the team makes the playoffs if they reach that threshold; which is essentially the lowest point amount that's greater than 50% for any team.  You can see that Atlanta really dug themselves a hole with their recent outage; while the Sabres have put themselves into prime position; especially with the games in hand.

Check how crazy this is; a regulation win tonight for Buffalo and a regulation loss for Carolina will bump the Sabres playoff chances to 57.9% and drop Carolina down to 44.3%.  WHO SAYS EACH GAME DOESN'T MATTER?!

Now as for the West; things are a bit more murky.  Like, way more murky.  Teams 3 - 13 are separated by just 10 points.  To the graphics.


To Reach 94 Point Threshold


TeamGames RemainingRequired RecordPointsChance in at 94 PtsPlayoff Chances
Coyotes2411-10-32570.5%66.8%
Ducks2512-10-32781.9%73.5%
Stars2512-11-22675.7%62.0%
Predators2512-11-22675.9%83.1%
Sharks2412-10-22478.3%68.5%
Flames2313-8-22868.8%38.1%
Wild2613-10-32678.9%60.1%
Kings2613-10-32684.7%79.0%
Blackhawks2615-9-23275.3%49.4%
Blue Jackets2615-8-33371.7%10.6%
Blues2716-8-33562.2%10.0%
Avalanche2418-5-23879.6%0.7%


So you can see; that 94 number being thrown around; yeah; that's not going to do it. Easy to tell when you look at the playoff chances for the team's with the highest number of games in hand; looking like it might be 96 or so in the West. That'll be crazy.

So now that you're armed to the teeth with knowledge. Put it to the test; put your money down on some games.  Go ahead; check out the NHL lines at BetUS.  If I were you though; I wouldn't put anything down on the Avalanche making the playoffs.  Just sayin'.

2 comments:

Phil said...

Also of importance for Sabres fans to note is that a win for the Sabres and a regulation loss for the Canes also puts the Sabres into 8th place for the first time all season.

Host Pay Per Head said...

I don't know in the first graph. The only thing that I can see, It is a lot of lines.

 
Fact: BanginPanger is not meant as an insult to the one and only Darren Pang, nor do I claim to be him. The views and opinions presented on BanginPanger are of my own, and no other namesake of the site, the NHL, Buffalo Sabres, Washington Capitals, or anyone else.