Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Lookin At Playoff Chances
So where do the bubble teams sit? How precarious a hold do current playoff teams have? Let's check it.
Check the graph from the awesome Sports Club Stats; percentage wise you have 6 teams comfortably in, 4 teams comfortably out, and 5 teams gunning for those last 2 spots. And Yes; I realize 4-10 (by points, not) are only separated by 9 points; but I don't feel like doing that much research for that many squads.
To Reach 91 Point Threshold
| Team | Games Remaining | Required Record | Points | Chances in at 91 | Playoff Chances |
| Bruins | 25 | 10-13-2 | 22 | 84.6% | 99.6% |
| Canadiens | 24 | 10-12-2 | 22 | 82.9% | 93% |
| Capitals | 25 | 10-12-3 | 23 | 77% | 94.5% |
| Rangers | 24 | 12-9-3 | 27 | 77% | 77.4% |
| Hurricanes | 25 | 13-9-3 | 29 | 69% | 52.8% |
| Sabres | 27 | 14-10-3 | 31 | 72.6% | 52.9% |
| Panthers | 27 | 17-8-2 | 36 | 60.7% | 17.9% |
| Thrashers | 24 | 14-7-3 | 31 | 55.1% | 11.5% |
Note that the chances colum refers to the chances the team makes the playoffs if they reach that threshold; which is essentially the lowest point amount that's greater than 50% for any team. You can see that Atlanta really dug themselves a hole with their recent outage; while the Sabres have put themselves into prime position; especially with the games in hand.
Check how crazy this is; a regulation win tonight for Buffalo and a regulation loss for Carolina will bump the Sabres playoff chances to 57.9% and drop Carolina down to 44.3%. WHO SAYS EACH GAME DOESN'T MATTER?!
Now as for the West; things are a bit more murky. Like, way more murky. Teams 3 - 13 are separated by just 10 points. To the graphics.
To Reach 94 Point Threshold
| Team | Games Remaining | Required Record | Points | Chance in at 94 Pts | Playoff Chances |
| Coyotes | 24 | 11-10-3 | 25 | 70.5% | 66.8% |
| Ducks | 25 | 12-10-3 | 27 | 81.9% | 73.5% |
| Stars | 25 | 12-11-2 | 26 | 75.7% | 62.0% |
| Predators | 25 | 12-11-2 | 26 | 75.9% | 83.1% |
| Sharks | 24 | 12-10-2 | 24 | 78.3% | 68.5% |
| Flames | 23 | 13-8-2 | 28 | 68.8% | 38.1% |
| Wild | 26 | 13-10-3 | 26 | 78.9% | 60.1% |
| Kings | 26 | 13-10-3 | 26 | 84.7% | 79.0% |
| Blackhawks | 26 | 15-9-2 | 32 | 75.3% | 49.4% |
| Blue Jackets | 26 | 15-8-3 | 33 | 71.7% | 10.6% |
| Blues | 27 | 16-8-3 | 35 | 62.2% | 10.0% |
| Avalanche | 24 | 18-5-2 | 38 | 79.6% | 0.7% |
So you can see; that 94 number being thrown around; yeah; that's not going to do it. Easy to tell when you look at the playoff chances for the team's with the highest number of games in hand; looking like it might be 96 or so in the West. That'll be crazy.
So now that you're armed to the teeth with knowledge. Put it to the test; put your money down on some games. Go ahead; check out the NHL lines at BetUS. If I were you though; I wouldn't put anything down on the Avalanche making the playoffs. Just sayin'.
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1 comment:
Also of importance for Sabres fans to note is that a win for the Sabres and a regulation loss for the Canes also puts the Sabres into 8th place for the first time all season.
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